Flash Player 9 Penetration
July 7th, 2006 中文
(update) New Flash Penetration numbers by new company, as of August 2006 it puts Flash Player 8 at 86%. When we going to see Flash Player 9 penetration numbers?
(update) Myspace.com hack to help Flash Player 9 penetration numbers.
It has been basically 8 days since the release of Flash Player 9. We have all been told that the pentration of this browser should gain a larger percentage faster then earlier Flash Players. This is because of the newer improvement installation methods.
The past penetration numbers show a total of 97.7% as of April 2006. For a more detailed breakdown visit this link. It shows an increase of 645M to 723M total number of Web users, and a 630M to 706M penetration of the Adobe Flash Player.
I was wondering around the web and came across the Flash Player 9.0.16 download site on Downloads.com. This site shows 6,433,676 downloads as of 2006.07.07. That is a rate of (6,433,676 / 8) 804,209 downloads a day. At that rate it will take 2.4 years to reach 97.7% (706M). To make 80% (565M) it will take 1.9 years and 60% (424M) in 1.44 years. The normal projection from Adobe formely Macromedia people is that they will get 80% in 12 months. But the numbers I just outlined are only from Downloads.com. I wonder how many are being downloaded off Adobe’s site.
Well, only 8 days into Flash Player 9 and I have to go and run the numbers. Off to do something more productive like sleep…….
(update)
2006.07.27 - downloads.com shows 8,051,767 total downloads.
Entry Filed under: Flash, Rich Internet Applications
8 Comments Add your own
1. Keith Peters | 2006-07-07 at 6.50 am
Haha. Give it some time to get some momentum going, and get some people putting out serious content. I am guessing it takes a bit longer than the Flash 8 player though. Designers/developers could update a Flash 7 project to Flash 8 pretty easily - add some filters and bitmap effects, etc, bang! new version. Flash 9 apps will be brand new beasts or near total re-writes. Then again, Flex Builder 2, and its (very nice) price range should have an army of developers cranking out new Flex 2 stuff.
2. Renaun Erickson | 2006-07-07 at 6.55 am
Thats the nice thing, if people start publishing Flash Player 9 content it will be a more fluid upgrade then ever before. With the Express Installer, you can read more at this link (”Getting to 80%” paragraph).
It would be cool to see Flash Player 9 break the 80% in 12 month historical trend.
3. David Mendels | 2006-07-07 at 7.04 am
Hi,
Keep in mind that Download.com isn’t the main source of downloads for the Flash Player. Indeed, I am surprised this many occur linked from the download.com site. The vast majority of downloads are triggered transparently by the Player detection script and/or Express Install process that a given site using Flash triggers. For there downloads, the end-user does not go to download.com or to adobe.com, the bits are served right where the end user is.
Last I looked we were doing over 5M per day installs of the Flash Player from our site. Of course, in addition to that, many hardware and OS vendors build the Flash Player into theyr systems so no download is required…over time, that will be Flash Player 9.
Regards,
David
Adobe
4. Crazy Ivan | 2006-07-07 at 7.07 am
“This site shows 6,433,676″
Something is screwy about that #. It showed the same # the first day Flash 9 was released.
5. Renaun Erickson | 2006-07-07 at 7.13 am
Thanks Dave for the info. Yeah I knew downloads.com had to be just a small percentage of what really is happening. If I take your 5 million per day number from just adobe’s site that would be 706M divided by 5.8M per day giving us 121 days to reach 97.7%. Well that doesn’t see right, just 4 months.
The 5.8 million per day will probably tapper off, but even at this rate it should beat the 80% historical trend.
But like you say, the 5.8 million is not even talking about partners, pre-installs, express installer, etc…
Very exciting time for Adobe’s Flash Player.
6. Renaun Erickson | 2006-07-07 at 7.15 am
Interesting statement Crazy Ivan. Downloads.com can’t count their own downloads, lol
7. Keith Peters | 2006-07-07 at 10.13 am
I just checked. It hit 100% penetration. Done. Onto Flash 10. :)
8. Jason | 2006-07-08 at 12.38 am
Don’t forget the flash player update notification as well. Though I’m not sure if this only applies to certain windows/ie platform configurations… perhaps someone at Adobe can shed some light on this?
I’m purposefully dragging my heels on updating my flash player in IE so I can get that little popup on the taskbar letting me know there’s a new player available. My update frequency is set for 7 days… so should happen any day now!
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