Flash Player 9 Penetration

Posted on July 7, 2006 | 8 comments

[lang_en](update) New Flash Penetration numbers by new company, as of August 2006 it puts Flash Player 8 at 86%. When we going to see Flash Player 9 penetration numbers?
(update) Myspace.com hack to help Flash Player 9 penetration numbers.

It has been basically 8 days since the release of Flash Player 9. We have all been told that the pentration of this browser should gain a larger percentage faster then earlier Flash Players. This is because of the newer improvement installation methods.

The past penetration numbers show a total of 97.7% as of April 2006. For a more detailed breakdown visit this link. It shows an increase of 645M to 723M total number of Web users, and a 630M to 706M penetration of the Adobe Flash Player.

I was wondering around the web and came across the Flash Player 9.0.16 download site on Downloads.com. This site shows 6,433,676 downloads as of 2006.07.07. That is a rate of (6,433,676 / 8) 804,209 downloads a day. At that rate it will take 2.4 years to reach 97.7% (706M). To make 80% (565M) it will take 1.9 years and 60% (424M) in 1.44 years. The normal projection from Adobe formely Macromedia people is that they will get 80% in 12 months. But the numbers I just outlined are only from Downloads.com. I wonder how many are being downloaded off Adobe’s site.

Well, only 8 days into Flash Player 9 and I have to go and run the numbers. Off to do something more productive like sleep…….

(update)
2006.07.27 – downloads.com shows 8,051,767 total downloads.

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[lang_zh]
Flash Player 9 只出台了8天。据悉这浏览器应该获得比以前版本的普及率又多又快,这是因为新的装置方法。

从2006年4月, 以前的普及率为97.7%。想看比较详细的数据按这儿。这些数据表示总数增加从645百万到723百万用户和 Adobe Flash Player 的普及率也从630百万增加到706百万。

上网时碰到 Flash Player 9.0.16 下载网站在 Downloads.com。这网站说从2006å¹´7月7日有 6,433,676人下载了这软件。所以每天有804,209人下载这个软件。所以两年左右才能达成97.7%。1.44年内可以达成 60% (424百万) å’Œ1.9年内可以达成80% (565百万)。Adobe(以前的Macromedia)的投影是12月内会达8成。上述的数字是从 Downloads.com 而已。我想知道Adobe 网站的下载率。Flash Player 9 只出台8天和这些数字还需要计算。我先睡觉好了…
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  • http://www.bit-101.com Keith Peters

    Haha. Give it some time to get some momentum going, and get some people putting out serious content. I am guessing it takes a bit longer than the Flash 8 player though. Designers/developers could update a Flash 7 project to Flash 8 pretty easily – add some filters and bitmap effects, etc, bang! new version. Flash 9 apps will be brand new beasts or near total re-writes. Then again, Flex Builder 2, and its (very nice) price range should have an army of developers cranking out new Flex 2 stuff.

  • http://www.renaun.com Renaun Erickson

    Thats the nice thing, if people start publishing Flash Player 9 content it will be a more fluid upgrade then ever before. With the Express Installer, you can read more at this link (“Getting to 80%” paragraph).

    It would be cool to see Flash Player 9 break the 80% in 12 month historical trend.

  • http://www.flex.org David Mendels

    Hi,

    Keep in mind that Download.com isn’t the main source of downloads for the Flash Player. Indeed, I am surprised this many occur linked from the download.com site. The vast majority of downloads are triggered transparently by the Player detection script and/or Express Install process that a given site using Flash triggers. For there downloads, the end-user does not go to download.com or to adobe.com, the bits are served right where the end user is.

    Last I looked we were doing over 5M per day installs of the Flash Player from our site. Of course, in addition to that, many hardware and OS vendors build the Flash Player into theyr systems so no download is required…over time, that will be Flash Player 9.

    Regards,
    David
    Adobe

  • Crazy Ivan

    “This site shows 6,433,676″

    Something is screwy about that #. It showed the same # the first day Flash 9 was released.

  • http://www.renaun.com Renaun Erickson

    Thanks Dave for the info. Yeah I knew downloads.com had to be just a small percentage of what really is happening. If I take your 5 million per day number from just adobe’s site that would be 706M divided by 5.8M per day giving us 121 days to reach 97.7%. Well that doesn’t see right, just 4 months.

    The 5.8 million per day will probably tapper off, but even at this rate it should beat the 80% historical trend.

    But like you say, the 5.8 million is not even talking about partners, pre-installs, express installer, etc…

    Very exciting time for Adobe’s Flash Player.

  • http://www.renaun.com Renaun Erickson

    Interesting statement Crazy Ivan. Downloads.com can’t count their own downloads, lol

  • http://www.bit-101.com Keith Peters

    I just checked. It hit 100% penetration. Done. Onto Flash 10. :)

  • http://blog.wrench.com.au Jason

    Don’t forget the flash player update notification as well. Though I’m not sure if this only applies to certain windows/ie platform configurations… perhaps someone at Adobe can shed some light on this?

    I’m purposefully dragging my heels on updating my flash player in IE so I can get that little popup on the taskbar letting me know there’s a new player available. My update frequency is set for 7 days… so should happen any day now!